We frequently hear that as unemployment declines (or increases), a like trend occurs among enrollments in higher education. Does this relationship exist between Dallas unemployment rates and DCCCD credit headcounts?

Correlation analysis allows us to explore the systematic relationship between two variables (namely unemployment and headcount). The measure can range from 0 (the variables are not associated) to +1 or -1 (perfect association). Dallas unemployment rates for August and December were matched to fall and spring semester headcounts. The resulting .69 correlation indicates a moderately strong, positive relationship between the two variables. In other words, as the unemployment rate decreases, there is a tendency for headcount to decrease as well. The opposite is true. As the unemployment rate increases, there is a tendency for headcount to increase as well.
 

Unemployment Rate Prior to Credit Semester	Dallas Metro Area Unemployment Rate	DCCCD Credit Headcount
1990 August, Fall 1990	5.1	53,085
1991 August, Fall 1991	6.2	55,224
1992 August, Fall 1992	6.9	55,416
1993 August, Fall 1993	5.9	52,353
1994 August, Fall 1994	5.1	48,899
1995 August, Fall 1995	4.8	47,430
1996 August, Fall 1996	4.0	46,706
1997 August, Fall 1997	3.9	46,154
1998 August, Fall 1998	3.3	46,472
1999 August, Fall 1999	3.2	49,667
2000 August, Fall 2000	3.2	49,874
2001 August, Fall 2001	5.4	54,346
2002 August, Fall 2002	7.3	59,819
2003 August, Fall 2003	7.1	61,508
2004 August, Fall 2004	5.7	61,812
2005 August, Fall 2005	5.0	63,403
1990 December, Spring 1991	4.9	51,307
1991 December, Spring 1992	6.1	52,334
1992 December, Spring 1993	6.3	52,352
1993 December, Spring 1994	5.2	48,966
1994 December, Spring 1995	4.3	46,686
1995 December, Spring 1996	4.1	44,912
1996 December, Spring 1997	3.4	43,591
1997 December, Spring 1998	3.1	43,711
1998 December, Spring 1999	2.7	45,482
1999 December, Spring 2000	2.8	46,850
2000 December, Spring 2001	2.6	49,663
2001 December, Spring 2002	6.2	54,702
2002 December, Spring 2003	6.4	60,646
2003 December, Spring 2004	5.8	59,534
2004 December, Spring 2005	5.3	62,706
2005 December, Spring 2006	4.6	60,860
Correlation (r) = .69

Note: The presence of strong correlation does not imply causality.

Data: DCCCD Facts Briefs, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Source:
http://data.bls.gov  (Dallas Metropolitan Area unemployment rate)
http://www.dcccd.edu/pda/research/fbreps/fbnote.htm (DCCCD Facts Briefs)

Prepared by Laura Massey (Nov. 1997), updated by Edward Hummingbird (June 2006).

Internal Reports & Summaries